The Beginning of the End?

[mayamaniac]

One thing I don't like about my cabe company is that they don't allow you to buy the STB, they make you rent it. And as far as I know, every STB requires activation from them so you can't simply buy one from ebay and make it work. If my cable company goes all digital, I will consider switching to DirecTV or Dish for sure.

[Jesse]

mayamaniac,

I do not think D* will let you open a new account with a used box. I tried getting my Mom set up with my old UTV DVR and they would not do it. Once you are setup you can still activate used (eg ebay) boxs. Just a heads up.

Jesse

[bcjenkins]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

One thing I don't like about my cabe company is that they don't allow you to buy the STB, they make you rent it. And as far as I know, every STB requires activation from them so you can't simply buy one from ebay and make it work. If my cable company goes all digital, I will consider switching to DirecTV or Dish for sure.

That's what is supposed to change this year..

http://digeo.com/press_pressrelease.aspx?id=4

Industry Changes Create Opportunities
A number of changes in the cable industry, including the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) mandated de-coupling of embedded security from cable set-top boxes and equipment on July 1, 2007, provide a broader opportunity for companies to bring state-of-the-art products to market. The FCC mandate, combined with the growing proliferation of HDTV devices and programming and the ever-increasing number of options for accessing digital media content, will result in an unprecedented ability for television viewers to create the ultimate television viewing experience. Digital media recorders provide people with a powerful portal to easily access and manage video programming and digital media, including photos, music, games and other personalized content.

[mayamaniac]

Originally Posted by Jesse

mayamaniac,

I do not think D* will let you open a new account with a used box. I tried getting my Mom set up with my old UTV DVR and they would not do it. Once you are setup you can still activate used (eg ebay) boxs. Just a heads up.

Jesse

My brother has DirecTV, and he went to Circuit City and bought a new STB and it worked. Maybe it doesn't work because in your case its a DVR?

Originally Posted by bcjenkins

That's what is supposed to change this year..

http://digeo.com/press_pressrelease.aspx?id=4

It doesn't clearly say that you don't have to rent a box from them, but I hope you're right.

[bcjenkins]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

It doesn't clearly say that you don't have to rent a box from them, but I hope you're right.

First line of the press release:

LAS VEGAS, Nev. — January 8, 2007 — Digeo, Inc. today announced it will begin selling new versions of the Emmy® Award-winning Moxi™ digital media recorder directly to consumers in 2007.

emphasis mine

B

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

It doesn't clearly say that you don't have to rent a box from them, but I hope you're right.

You basically have to rent a box, or a cablecard. The FCC mandate is why CableCard exists.

[zoso]

Comcast here in the Seattle area put out a message stating that you could get additional digital boxes for free for 12 months. I wonder if they are trying to get people to bite on this to avoid having to offer free boxes with no time limit when they switch over to purely digital here (whenever that may be.)

[Jesse]

I do not think D* will let you open a new account with a used box. I tried getting my Mom set up with my old UTV DVR and they would not do it. Once you are setup you can still activate used (eg ebay) boxs. Just a heads up.

My brother has DirecTV, and he went to Circuit City and bought a new STB and it worked. Maybe it doesn't work because in your case its a DVR?

Note I said a "used box." Your brother bought a new box.

Jesse

[derelicte1]

my cable company (brighthouse) gets around this by giving the boxes to you for free. bastards.

[wvpolekat]

Originally Posted by derelicte1

my cable company (brighthouse) gets around this by giving the boxes to you for free. bastards.

For the CableCard thing this won't work. They HAVE to allow you to BYOB. That is, if it ever goes into effect.

[sandor]

Originally Posted by wvpolekat

As for HD, I have always maintained it will be a complete flop. So far, from everything I am seeing that is exactly what is happening. The % of market share and content available to the vast majority of the TV watching public is tiny. And the vast majority of them don't want to go buy a new set to watch the 2 shows that are in HD.

The government forcing it on us is clearly not having any real effect. They are already budgeting a bucket of money to buy HD converters for the folks that refuse or can't afford to replace their TV so the government can sell of that spectrum.

I am all for going to digital OTA to free up spectrum, but HD is and will flop.

so are you talking about high definition television or the FCC required ATSC broadcasting standard?

ATSC (digital over the air broadcasting) is here to stay, and NTSC is going the way of the dinosaurs. period. This ball has been rolling since the mid-90s and it is about time, analog (NTSC) broadcasting is archaic.

But whether or not a television station decides to use their broadcast frequency for HD or SD broadcasts is up to them. But it seems to me that over the past 3 years i have been watching ATSC broadcasts (and in Philadelphia, ATSC is still broadcast over secondary antennas, until NTSC is completely phased out) that HD is really taking over, especially during primetime. It seems the majority of our local news is now HD, the number of HD commercials have been increasing at a rapid rate of speed, and the number of shows and events being broadcast in HD is growing very rapidly.

Certainly old SD formated content still vastly outnumbers new HD formatted, but given the ever lowering prices of HD broadcast/production equipment, it is very quickly replacing SD equipment.

So, we can still "enjoy" old episodes of MASH in a 4:3, stereo audio format, but Boston Legal and NFL football are 16:9 AC3/5.1 audio here on out.

[wvpolekat]

I think many of you are both misunderstanding my statements and have rose colored glasses on.

First, lets qualify my terms.

When I say SD or HD, I am referring to how it is presented to the user that is watching it. Meaning, if I am watching CSI on my HD set via my old digital cable box, it's SD. It does not matter if it was originally filmed in HD or not. So, the number of HD sets out there doesn't factor into my statements, because a large number of them are hooked to SD sources.

As for some who have posted in reply to this about the glory that is HD, you are in the VAST minority. And, in the end, that will be important.

Joe Sixpack TV watcher could care less about HD. While, yes, it looks nice and is cool, but that doesn't appeal to Joe Sixpack, particularly when it means he has to buy a new TV to do it. Add to that the cable and sat providers. They could care less about SD vs HD, except how it impacts the bottom line. I assure you that they do not care about the beautiful picture you get from HD, except that they can charge you more for it. Left to them, they would goto just SD and save bandwidth.

The FCC could care less about HD or 5.1 as well. They care about selling the spectrum. That is the ONLY reason they are pushing to digital. It has nothing to do with providing better or more advanced services to us. If anyone thinks that it's about anything beyond money, they are dillusional.

Here is my prediction on how it will all shake out.

1) The "digital deadline" will get pushed back at least another 5-7 years by broadcasters. In particular, the non-major market ones. The market penetration of digital sets in their viewers homes is WAY too small consider dropping analog anytime soon. Again, the only reason they will fight this hard is for advertising dollars. Even at the 5-7 year mark, the cable and sat providers will make a mint providing to these folks when broadcast cant.

2) Joe Sixpack will just go buy the $99 STB to let him use his regular SD set. He is not interested in spending $300+ on a new TV to replace his perfectly functional one. This will drive broadcasters to #3 to recoup their HD investment.

3) Once they actually get to switching everything to digital, much of the HD content will become premium. They are just getting people roped in now, so they can charge more for it later. This will also factor into #2 above.

I know that many here are HD fans, and that is great. More power to you and I am glad you are enjoying it. But, remember that VAST parts of the country dont even have HD on the road map, even if they want it. To my knowledge, none of my locals are broadcasting in HD at all, and I would suspect that is the norm outside of major metro areas. HD is much like broadband, the folks in the big city can't imagine living without it, while the folks in the outlying areas are content with crappy cable ISPs that offer crippled broadband and spotty DSL. It all takes time to evolve, and HD has nowhere near the appeal that broadband does, nor the imapct.

[sandor]

Originally Posted by wvpolekat

I think many of you are both misunderstanding my statements and have rose colored glasses on.

First, lets qualify my terms.
...

much like the loss of "party lines", the advent of HD will, most likely go on without a notice by many in the US. But it can hardly be called a flop - the sales numbers of HD capable tvs (now all complete with ATSC tuners) can show that.

"flop" is the term that i take exception to. Like color television before it, it will be long in coming, they had to make sure old tv still worked with it, but it will happen.

[sainswor99]

Originally Posted by sandor

much like the loss of "party lines", the advent of HD will, most likely go on without a notice by many in the US. But it can hardly be called a flop - the sales numbers of HD capable tvs (now all complete with ATSC tuners) can show that.

"flop" is the term that i take exception to. Like color television before it, it will be long in coming, they had to make sure old tv still worked with it, but it will happen.

I don't think you can attribute the sale of HD-capable TV's to the desire of the consumer to have HD programming; most HD-capable sets also have a number of other features that make them appealing (e.g., flat-panel displays, PIP, etc). I'm not disagreeing with your general point; I'm just suggesting that your specific example could be attributed to other factors. A better example might be the sales of HD cable service to the consumer via cable or satellite.

Stu

[sandor]

Originally Posted by sainswor99

I don't think you can attribute the sale of HD-capable TV's to the desire of the consumer to have HD programming; most HD-capable sets also have a number of other features that make them appealing (e.g., flat-panel displays, PIP, etc). I'm not disagreeing with your general point; I'm just suggesting that your specific example could be attributed to other factors. A better example might be the sales of HD cable service to the consumer via cable or satellite.

Stu

oh, i agree - my whole point is that consumers *do not* drive change, rather other forces (changing standards, marketplace, innovation, etc) drive joe six pack to change. it just takes a while for consumer adoption to reach a critical mass, but the technology, and moreover the new FCC standards, aren't going to stop progressing.

[wvpolekat]

Perhaps "flop" is a bad word. Perhaps more of a change forced on a generally uninterested public. Although, I am not 100% certain that we won't end up with SD over a digital signal in the end.

The problem with my position is that the TV makers are really who decides this. Regardless of if it is what Joe Sixpack *wants*, they have a huge interest in getting a couple of new TVs in each home.

It's borderline conspiracy theory now that I look at it....

FCC wants to sell the spectrum, so they come up with the digital deadline.
Broadcasters have to foot the bill for switching to it, so they get everyone to jump on the HD bandwagon by putting a bunch of HD stuff out there that they will charge for later to recoup their expenses.
Cable/sat providers just make you pay more for HD from the word go.
TV makers get a payday out of it because everyone starts replacing TVs.
Content creators love it because it lets them put DRM on everything and make sure you cant skip commercials.

It's a win/win situation, for everyone but Joe Sixpack, who just wants to watch NASCAR and American Idol and is firmly caught in the middle of all this.

Only time will tell what will happen with any of it.

[mayamaniac]

I think every joe sixpack is aware of HD and wants an HD set to watch his football games. If he doesn't have an HD set or service is not available, then he'll watch it at the friend's house that has it. Even if other shows are in SD, if Mr. sixpack can watch his football games every sunday in HD, he is content and think its worthwhile. Women in general have less interest in these things, but men often likes to buy the big TV or the ultimate stereo system. Now whether he can afford it is another story. So to say joe sixpack could care less about HD is not fact, just opinion.

I agree that it'll take a while for HD content to be available and standardized, but it'll inevitably happen.. I think for a TV network to switch from all SD to all HD is very costly. And that will take several years. And the transition to HD seems slow at start, but I think it'll progress faster as the cost goes down.

[sainswor99]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

I think every joe sixpack is aware of HD and wants an HD set to watch his football games. If he doesn't have an HD set or service is not available, then he'll watch it at the friend's house that has it. Even if other shows are in SD, if Mr. sixpack can watch his football games every sunday in HD, he is content and think its worthwhile. Women in general have less interest in these things, but men often likes to buy the big TV or the ultimate stereo system. Now whether he can afford it is another story. So to say joe sixpack could care less about HD is not fact, just opinion.

It's also a big assumption that joe sixpack is aware and wants HD; in some areas, HD is not readily available. While I'll grant you that most men want the latest and greatest in TV technology (bigger is better?), and that technology happens to be HD at this time, I don't think it's the driving force behind purchases.

How long has s-video been out on cable STB's? S-video provides a superior picture to coax, yet I'll bet you the majority of new Hi-Def capable tv's are still running with good old coax. People buy stuff because they think they need it ("that 60" plasma is HD compatible? cool....")., not because they know enough about it to really want it.

[sandor]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

I think every joe sixpack is aware of HD and wants an HD set to watch his football games. If he doesn't have an HD set or service is not available, then he'll watch it at the friend's house that has it. Even if other shows are in SD, if Mr. sixpack can watch his football games every sunday in HD, he is content and think its worthwhile. Women in general have less interest in these things, but men often likes to buy the big TV or the ultimate stereo system. Now whether he can afford it is another story. So to say joe sixpack could care less about HD is not fact, just opinion.
...

for the record, joe sixpack's wife is wendy winecooler - and she *loves* seeing McDreamy and McSteamy in HD on her husband's new 1080p LCD from Best Buy.

[ezeitler]

Originally Posted by stevech

As I watch AT&T (and Quest) deploy vDSL, and they've put the bix mux boxes ($$$) in my neighborhood, I wonder how well they'll compete with cable TV. Something like 30Mbps over copper to the home for up to 1000 ft. In this bandwidth, they'll put 3 video streams, digital phone and Internet service. It's their low cost retort to FiOS.

I suspect they'll do well (though I loathe AT&T nowadays)

Actually, it is 15MB/sec up to 5000 feet for 3 c\tv channels, internet and phone.

The small rural phone company I work for just installed ADSL2+ equipment to begin offering triple play to our customers in competition with the local cable folks.