The Beginning of the End?

[lobosrul]

A few months ago I posted a prediction that cable will move to all digital (just like broadcast) spelling an end to analog TV tuners. Well I just read this on AVS forum.

Comcast near finish of digital upgrade

By Eric Benderoff
Tribune staff reporter
Published April 6, 2007

Comcast Corp. is in the final stages of a $400 million, four-year upgrade of its digital cable network in the Chicago area, a move that will end the cable company's delivery of analog signals to city customers by July.

After it completes the city work, Comcast will begin suburban upgrades, said Eric Schaefer, vice president of business development. That work should be completed by the end of 2008, he said.

Completion of the upgrade means all Comcast customers that have basic service will need to exchange their analog set-top boxes for digital set-top boxes. The cable company will not charge an additional fee or raise rates for current analog customers, Schaefer said.

"The vast majority of our Chicago customers already have digital service, but for the customers with basic service, they will get a new box," he said.


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=830402

The link that the avsforum post references http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...i-business-hed
is no longer the original article, but a correction.

Part of it is of great interest: After the digital upgrade, those customers who plug a cable directly into their television and bypass the need for a set-top box can still do so, but they would receive only local broadcast channels. The cable box will be offered free by Comcast for the primary household TV, but boxes for secondary sets require a monthly fee, a Comcast spokesperson said.

Of course, you can still use an analog tuner with a cable box, but you'll need a box for every tuner. And then theres QAM of course, but who knows what your cable co will make available..

[stanger89]

I suspect a lot of people will move to satellite when cable starts doing that. Requiring a box for each TV is one of the biggests barriers to entry for sat, and once cable requires it too, well, then the only differentiation between the two will be cost and lineups.

And sat wins on both of those, hands down.

[ToxMox]

I agree. The only thing keeping me with cable is that I don't need boxes for every tuner/TV. If I did it would cost me a fortune in monthly rental fees.

[sainswor99]

Originally Posted by stanger89

I suspect a lot of people will move to satellite when cable starts doing that. Requiring a box for each TV is one of the biggests barriers to entry for sat, and once cable requires it too, well, then the only differentiation between the two will be cost and lineups.

And sat wins on both of those, hands down.

If you can get past the big ugly circle on the side of your house I live with a very peculiar woman, and she hates seeing satellite dishes...

[derelicte1]

Originally Posted by ToxMox

I agree. The only thing keeping me with cable is that I don't need boxes for every tuner/TV. If I did it would cost me a fortune in monthly rental fees.

I hear you! A 6 tuner dvr loses its appeal if it requires 6 external stbs and a $25+ per month rental fee!

[Ryokurin]

Originally Posted by ToxMox

I agree. The only thing keeping me with cable is that I don't need boxes for every tuner/TV. If I did it would cost me a fortune in monthly rental fees.

This has been in the works for years. its figured that when they finally get around to doing this they will provide up to four tuners for free. The box will likely be the DCT700.

They really don't have a choice. As more and more channels go HD, along with increasing Internet speeds, and phone services they are on the edge of running out of coax bandwidth as it is. I personally figured they would do it by 2009, so this estimate of 2008 is just about on schedule.

[Trepidati0n]

Doesn't matter...as long as they "coax" out, we can still use Sage just fine. We just Sage and an external module to fire out IR commands to seperate boxes. I can easily handle 4 cable boxes in my basement closet.

[lobosrul]

Originally Posted by Trepidati0n

Doesn't matter...as long as they "coax" out, we can still use Sage just fine. We just Sage and an external module to fire out IR commands to seperate boxes. I can easily handle 4 cable boxes in my basement closet.

Oh, I wasnt suggesting that they would turn off analog connection from the box. That will probably be another 10 to 15 years down the road.

And I'm all for a digital conversion. It leaves room for many times more HD channels, because you can cram at least 6 times as many digital SD channels in the same space as one analog.

But its this locked down aproach, you must rent a box that will only send digital signals to devices we want you to. When in reality they could use QAM. Theres no need to even have a box, they want the rental fees.

[Halstead]

Originally Posted by Trepidati0n

Doesn't matter...as long as they "coax" out, we can still use Sage just fine. We just Sage and an external module to fire out IR commands to seperate boxes. I can easily handle 4 cable boxes in my basement closet.

Except for the part where you'll have to pay for additional tuners at a monthly rate, and if the DCT2xxx are any indication, suffer from worse quality than I do going direct coax into the PVR250

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by sainswor99

If you can get past the big ugly circle on the side of your house I live with a very peculiar woman, and she hates seeing satellite dishes...

But is no dish worth $15-50/month?

[sainswor99]

I learned a long time ago, it's far better to pay the price in cash than listen to the nagging

[wvpolekat]

I am not sure why this is any kind of shock or surprise to anyone. Heck, I don't even know anyone that has cable that isn't digital. Analog STBs? I haven't seen one of those in probably 15 years.

The only people I know going straight analog to the TV are doing it in a spare room or something just because they can. I suspect most of them will just throw up rabbit ears instead of worrying about a box.

Point is, that 99% of the cable TV watching is already happening through a STB already. They assured that by making the price gap between analog and digital so small.

As for HD, I have always maintained it will be a complete flop. So far, from everything I am seeing that is exactly what is happening. The % of market share and content available to the vast majority of the TV watching public is tiny. And the vast majority of them don't want to go buy a new set to watch the 2 shows that are in HD.

The government forcing it on us is clearly not having any real effect. They are already budgeting a bucket of money to buy HD converters for the folks that refuse or can't afford to replace their TV so the government can sell of that spectrum.

I am all for going to digital OTA to free up spectrum, but HD is and will flop.

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by wvpolekat

I am not sure why this is any kind of shock or surprise to anyone. Heck, I don't even know anyone that has cable that isn't digital. Analog STBs? I haven't seen one of those in probably 15 years.

Realize that most of the channels on cable are still analog. Even when you sign up for digital and get the box, only those channels unique to the digital lineup are actually digital, the rest are still good-old analog.

The only people I know going straight analog to the TV are doing it in a spare room or something just because they can. I suspect most of them will just throw up rabbit ears instead of worrying about a box.

Maybe "just because they can", but it's still going to be a bit of a shock when they're told they're going to need a box to get all the "standard" channels in the other rooms.

Point is, that 99% of the cable TV watching is already happening through a STB already. They assured that by making the price gap between analog and digital so small.

A large chunk probably have digital cable, but most are probably viewing analog, and probably taking advantage of the simplicity with which you can distribute analog throughout the house.

As for HD, I have always maintained it will be a complete flop. So far, from everything I am seeing that is exactly what is happening.

HD will not be a flop, it will take time to catch on, but it will succeed. The industry will make sure of that. More and more HD is becoming a way to differentiate yourself from the competition.

The % of market share and content available to the vast majority of the TV watching public is tiny. And the vast majority of them don't want to go buy a new set to watch the 2 shows that are in HD.

While I feel your pain, I don't agree:

1) You essentially can't buy an SDTV anymore, at least not of any decent size.
2) All of primetime network TV is HD, and that does make up the largest market share.
3) TV providers are basically in an arms race to add more HD quicker (just look at DirecTV's announcement of 100 national HD channels by year-end).

Like I said, I feel your pain, there's only two shows I really care about available in HD. But you and I are in the minority, most people still watch primarily network TV (I created a poll here that showed as much).

The government forcing it on us is clearly not having any real effect. They are already budgeting a bucket of money to buy HD converters for the folks that refuse or can't afford to replace their TV so the government can sell of that spectrum.

That has nothing to do with anything. As you noted most people don't get their TV OTA, they get it via cable or satellite, and those providers will be providing analog SD outputs long into the future.

I am all for going to digital OTA to free up spectrum, but HD is and will flop.

No, HD will succeed, it has to succeed, the consumer electronics and content industries will make sure of it.

[lovingHDTV]

Originally Posted by wvpolekat

I am not sure why this is any kind of shock or surprise to anyone. Heck, I don't even know anyone that has cable that isn't digital. Analog STBs? I haven't seen one of those in probably 15 years.

The only people I know going straight analog to the TV are doing it in a spare room or something just because they can. I suspect most of them will just throw up rabbit ears instead of worrying about a box.

Point is, that 99% of the cable TV watching is already happening through a STB already. They assured that by making the price gap between analog and digital so small.

As for HD, I have always maintained it will be a complete flop. So far, from everything I am seeing that is exactly what is happening. The % of market share and content available to the vast majority of the TV watching public is tiny. And the vast majority of them don't want to go buy a new set to watch the 2 shows that are in HD.

The government forcing it on us is clearly not having any real effect. They are already budgeting a bucket of money to buy HD converters for the folks that refuse or can't afford to replace their TV so the government can sell of that spectrum.

I am all for going to digital OTA to free up spectrum, but HD is and will flop.

I only use analog channels, and have no STBs in my house. So at least you have heard of one person

For me it is easy, if I have to have a STB, then I finally have justification to dump cable all together and only use my OTA. The only channel I use off my analog cable is Discovery, even Discovery is not worth it eventually.

[hemicuda]

in my limited opinion it still all boils down to content control by 'the powers that be." they have it and if you want it you'll play by THEIR rules. what a PITA that has the potential to be.

[Enormous]

Originally Posted by lovingHDTV

I only use analog channels, and have no STBs in my house.

++ Same here.

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by hemicuda

in my limited opinion it still all boils down to content control by 'the powers that be." they have it and if you want it you'll play by THEIR rules.

It's a two way street, they need us to buy it. If they want us to pay for their content, they should have to give it to us on our terms.

Too bad we never exercise that power.

[wvpolekat]

Yes, it is a two way street. But, the traffic cop that is the our courts seems to have forgotten about fair use in the digital age. That is what made the VCR as successful as it is.

[jptaz]

So do those of you who do not seem to think there is good programming on network TV not have PBS HD? The amount of quality of programs on PBS HD easily is more than 2.

I am on the other end of the spectrum and easily keep my 3 HD tuners busy with just OTA...I love my network TV. Maybe I am confused...if there are only 2 TV programs of value on TV then why even bother with SageTV? Or are there that many non network shows that the networks?

John

[hemicuda]

Originally Posted by stanger89

It's a two way street, they need us to buy it. If they want us to pay for their content, they should have to give it to us on our terms.

Too bad we never exercise that power.

I agree. with the caveat that they also have the option to just not offer "it" if we don't take it as delivered. they could claim that there's no market for what they offer. not all that likely to happen, but possibly on the fringe of the radar.