The future of sagetv speculation thread

[matterofrecord]

The future of sagetv speculation thread

Hi

I thought I would start this thread to see if we as a forum can try and figure out what is going to happen with sagetv now that google has bought it.

I thought a few ground rules might be useful

1 - If your going to be a **** or an **** or even a ***** be an entertaining ****. This thread is not for venting anger, grieving ( yes I said that ) or airing grievances. If you want to spill bile set up your own thread
2 - Yes sagetv extenders are great it would be great to know what will be happening with them but please no more reminiscing or wondering how to replace extenders / acquire them etc etc
3 - No google bashing and No bashing the sagetv staff. We don't know what is happening so lets NOT lay into people calling them sell outs or evil when they may have made a massively positive decision for us all.
4 - Yes sagetv still works as it did when we bought it. this does not need restating. Yes we all had features, fixes or whatever we wanted to see but save them for another thread.
5 - NO complaints about the google takeover or the lack of extenders. what's happened has happened please feel free to set up your own dedicated complaining thread somewhere else.
6 - Yes in some sense there is no point in speculating. We probably should just wait and see and stop thinking about it. But as every gambler and oilman knows speculating and guessing can be fun and good exercise for the grey matter.
7 - Belgium beer or any other type of beverage for that matter has nothing to do with this OK - (U know who you are.) neither do unicorns

This thread is for honest speculation about where google is going to take sagetv lets keep it that way


So ladies and gentlemen start your speculation

[matterofrecord]

Okay heres my guess

The Summary version

My prediction is that sagetv along with android will be built into "internet televisions" and "interent settop boxes" as a way of getting people onto the internet whilst also providing a media center DVR in their living room. These will probably offer in some form the server / client streaming model that sagetv has. Some "internet televisions" and many "settop boxes" will make use of sagetvs DVR facility ( DVR aka PVR aka freeview+ aka kind of sky+ aka kind of tivo aka sagetv ). It is my guess that google will infact try googletv + sage and sell it to people as a DVR with internet capabilities.

Google tv failed becaues
A) no one really knew what it was
B) Most people had the computer for the internet and a tele for the television
C) it was sold through specialised retailers mainly

people were confused and had no real reason to buy it outside a small group of internet lovers who wanted the internet on their television but hadn't managed to connect a computer to a television.

I think googletv v2 will be marketed more mainstream as a dvr first and an internet device second. I'm guessing google will try and sell it as a consumer device you'd buy in a high street store rather than a niche device you buy from a specialist retailer. It will almost definately run on android and have access to the full range of android apps. This android base will make it more capable than any internet tv currently available. I'm also guessing the DVR facility will feature prominantly in the marketing as DVRs are desrable devices with a proven track record in sales that internet enabled devices don't have. Like I've already said most people are happy with a computer and phone for internet but dvrs make a considerable improvement to television viewing ( as we all know ).


The very long version with working


If you think I'm way off the mark here is my working.
| | | | |
\/ \/ \/ \/ \/
Feel free to criticise it and rip it apart, or just point out flaws, omissions etc. feedback is good.

first lets establish a few things

1) Sagetv is java based (so can run on any platform that can run java)
2) Andriod is heavily in with java
3) Google is probably interested in getting people onto the internet.( after all that is where they make almost all their money)
4) Very good dvr software is still a niche product. You can use sagetv without connecting it to the net [see note 1 if you need an explantion]. That doesn't really integrate well with googles core business.[ see Note 2 about googles core business] )
5) The tv is usually the biggest screen in the house
6) "Smart tvs " ( aka internet tvs) are begining to take off. However as far as I am aware the experience is currently quite poor. [ see Note 5 for sources]
-----
- for those who are unsure what "smart televisions" or internet tv is-
"smart televisions" aka "internet tv" aka "ip televisions" ( pedantically not correct but often used) are a way of connecting your television to your internet so that you can use online services - mostly for video services like youtube, netflix, bbc iplayer, hulu etc but also apps are available for facebook, twitter and loads of other things as well apparently . These internet features are being built into many new televisions. Now as far as I am aware the manufacturers are each building their own propriety versions with propriety apps and the experience almost always gets mediocre reviews. Some manufactures (LG sharp and philips I think) are begining to join together on a common platform.
(The following manufacturers all have smart tvs available in the UK now Samsung, Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba, Philips, LG and Sharp)

7) Google has a relationship with almost all the major television manufactures through their android phone and tablet business. Samsung, LG, Sony, Toshiba and Sharp all make Android phones and/or tablets. I could only find one Philips Android media device but could find nothing connecting Panasonic with Android.

I think you can see how I drew my conclusion that sagetv could be built into internet televisions and internet tv settop boxes. Googletv with sagetv and android ( GSA-TV or "android sage" from now on ) could become the common platform for almost all smart televisions and settop boxes. It would massively cut down the cost of development and increase quality and choice. GSA-TV could do for the smart tv and dvr what Android did for the affordable smart phone and become the default OS of choive. It will give people a media center whilst also connecting them to the internet from their living room.

Why Android? Android is owned by google and heavily invested in java. Android already has massive amount of supporting apps. Android is light requiring little computer power yet is also becoming well developed. Android was used in googletv v1. Also Android is being ported to intel atom platform which has powerful smart tv capabilities. ( see note 3 on Android and atom )

Sagetv already has photos, music, videos and online content like youtube, netflix and hulu ( all of which will be big sellers to different people ) . Android can provide the web browser and almost all the features and apps that are on an andriod phone. This would make "sage Android" a very flexible, multi featured "smart tv "media center with DVR capabilities. It would be cheaper for manufacturers to develop products using sage android and it would provide more features than proprietary versions.


Anyway Thats my working. Thats my best guess.

Seeing how google operate it will probably be a very fluid process of updates. lThis years model will be very different from last years model etc but on the specifics here are my guesses


more specific feature speculation
| | | | |
\/ \/ \/ \/ \/

"The guess list" - starting with the obvious

-sync your "sage android box" with your android phone/ google account. Thats all your contacts, email, docs, facebook and twitter etc via television

-google talk or skype integrated. ( others are doing it so google has to)

-Use your phone as a remote etc.
( ----- start off topic rant -----
I just wish someone would build smart phones with infrared transmitters so we could use them as "universal remotes". that would be so cool - theres probably a patent that would have to be bought first. with a patent for this and quality execution your phone would become indispensable.
----- end off topic rant --- )

Basically you can let your imagination run riot within the bounds of andriod and sage.

heres what I decided on when I was letting my imagination run.

-Television and social networking combined
With PiP you could watch tv and the tweets people were making about the show and discuss live sports on facebook all from your television.

-favourite television shows offering integration with social networking goups

-televisions with built in dvrs ( probably using laptop 1tb drives available retail for just over $100 and there is only so much room under the tele for electric boxes)

-Mouth watering all in one boxes with large capacity multi tuner HD dvr, "smart tv" , Blu-ray and dvd.

-Google retaining the big sever/ slim client model ability for now. It makes a a lot of sense to keep this part as it will help with adoption ( "record in one place to watch anywhere" including your phone could become quite big)

-Cloud offerings but tempered with realism. few people can push 8 hours of HD programs a day up to the internet.

-The shows you watch could help provide targeted ads.
(I'm not so keen on the targeted ads thing as google might not understand that I have a little pet goblin that watches a whole heap of rubbish reality shows and sitcom repeats when I'm not around. I don't think this should be reflected in the adverts google target towards me, but what can you do? )

----------------------------------


Much like android for the smart phone I think, if done right ( lower cost to manufacturer and higher quality for the consumer) , sagetv + Android stands a good chance of becoming the standard "smart internet television" OS. It could put google Android in many living rooms. But to get google sage android into the living room it needs a proven path and that proven path is with the dvr.


That was my guess - I am most definatly wrong on many parts but the logic seems to make sense to me from what I know. However I have no inside knowledge and would be interested in your feedback, comments, additional info critiques and more importantly your guesses and differing opinions. I've been trying to figure this out and I've kinda got stuck on this one idea and a few other ideas or critisism would help.

IF I am wrong ( and I have NO inside knowledge at all ) then you have just wasted 5 minutes of your life and I am sorry. ( though no one forced you to read this )
---------------------

IF I am right presumably at the moment the Sage team are all working at getting sagetv compliant with android, making a google or andriod branded interface and who knows what else so don't expect any bug fixes of feature requests yet.( do expect a stressed out sage team trying to meet deadlines.)

However if I am right there are a few questions remain. Mostly what happens to sagetv as we know it?

Will sagetv remain the same with the intenet tv as a spin off? ie One version for power users and one version for lite consumers ( like SketchUp and SketchUp Pro? )
Will sage continue with it's multituner dvr capabilities or will the internet tvs / settop boxs with just a couple of tuners built in become the main focus?
Will sage still allow for an unlimited number of tuners on a main server whilst using either an "Android sage" internet enabled television or a dedicated "Android sage" placeshifter box as a client. ( this "record one place watch anywhere" option would make a lot of sense for increased adoption )
Should we be buying google stock? ( b4 u ask I can't afford any but I would if I could )

Whatever google do the more options they make available the greater the uptake and hence the greater the chance of google conquering the big screen in the living room. If google plays this right it could put andriod pcs in millions of living rooms beating microsoft and apple to the biggest screen in the house.

Whatever happens the dvr feature will be there the only question is in what form. I may need 20+ tuners but others survive on only 2. Dvr capabilities was almost definately the main reason for googles purchase of sagetv and I believe that a dvr feature will greatly increase the desriability and uptake of the machines. But google does want to earn money and so far it has done this via target ads on the internet. so either getting people on the net more OR getting better quality of ads with viewing analysis are the options that I can see which leaves the question why help people feed their tele addictions?

One aspect of sage I have little expectation of seeing again is a placeshifter license for a windows client. There's very little incentive for google to keep this on. Conversly if it doesn't cost that much there is very little reason to kill it either ( other than to force sales of andriod based place shifting devices ) . Personnally I don't use a client but if I had the money I might prefer a windows placeshifter client to a dedicated set top box ( see note 4 why- though mainly cyberlink powerdvd fast forward and slo-motion)


Before I finnish I would like to give an opinion about the sagetv staff. I have been reading the posts that narflex has made ( amongst others ) and they don't read like the posts of a man with regrets or guilt. I figure if he/they knew there was a massive dump coming down on sagetv they might have cushioned the landing by talking about "commercial realities in hard economic times" or "on balance it was the right thing to do" ie there will be upsides and downsides. In fact I get the impression that sagetv team are very happy about the buyout. Either google $$$$$$'$ are so big that the sage team will never be unhappy again, the sagetv team have come to hate sagetv over the years and will be glad to see the back of it ( enough idiotic support requests can do this to anyone) but the sage team seem pretty committed. I think it's more likely that google has positive plans for sagetv.

Anyway heres to not knowing, hoping , waiting and pointless wild speculation until we know. I am looking forward to your guesses.


----------------
the boring notes of clarification

{ Note 1 - Using sagetv without an interent connection.
In the uk you can get a weeks dvb-t epg over the air for free. for satelite and HD dvb-t2 you need an xml importer. you donwload the huffman compressed epg over a tuner and get an decent xml file out with a program like dvbguide 0.90 or EPG Collector. in the usa I understand sage offers it's own listings over the internet however you could still use an xml importer to import another listing guide }

{ Note 2 - Google and the internet
I know Picassa or Sketchup don't really integrate with googles core business ,although we appreciate the gifts thank you google, generally if you look at the list of google acquisitions they are almost all internet focused.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ions_by_Google }

{ note 3 - android and atom
basically type andriod atom into ... um any search engine that springs to mind. if that is too much click on any of the links below. they all say about the same basic news trying to convice you that the battery hungry ( compared to ARM ) atom is for tablets and smart phones. Atom is a good fit for smart tvs because the Atom is already well developed for "smart tvs" complete with tuners so intel are "ready to go".
see here for details
http://intelconsumerelectronics.com/


and see here for atom and android

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...ins_to_be_seen

http://searchenginewatch.com/article...wered-Androids

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/software/and...ased-50005171/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...android-phones

http://searchenginewatch.com/article...wered-Androids }



{NOTE 4 - why some people might prefer a windows placeshifter as a client

A - The main reason, the biggie - cyberlink powerdvd
Fast forward and rewind never really happened with sagetv.
I use cyberlink powerdvd a lot to watch of shows at 1.1, 1.2 1.5 and 2.0 times their ordinary speed with good speech. I find this really good for factual programing ( a good newreader or presenter can be watched at twice ordinary speed). Out of all the programs that can speed up video and keep good speech cyberlink powerdvd does this better than all the rest. also powerdvd is good for slow motion in sports.
B - A blu ray drive ( add these to a dvr and watch them fly out of the shops )
C - More powerful graphics card for better image quality ( better image quality is a guess based on hqv benchmarks on the net. I haven't tried a deicated extendor yet so I can't compare)
D- Scanning programs using videoredo slider bar.
E - Other windows only progs video editing and conversion,photo touch up maybe add a little gaming. Theres no doubt a windows based client would be more expensive, and less power efficient option but it would also be more flexable. although fast forward and slo-motion are the biggest factors. }

{NOTE 5 - sources I used for smart tv info
mainly bbc tv program click on 10/09/2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006m9ry you can watch with a UK IP address
apparenlty 3/4 of samsung sets sold in europe are smarttvs the report also estimates panasonic says only 25% of their smart tvs have been conected samsung says about 50% connected
also review magazines don't seem to bother much with the internet capabilities of televisions so I'm guessing they're not worth bothering with
}

{ extra note on technical feasability
even without the intel atom 1080p is possible with ARM based chips
The galaxy tab 10.1 uses a nvidia/arm 1ghz dual core chip and is capable of 1080p @ 30fps whilst running on honeycomb. So whatever form sagetv Android takes ,whether it's built into a television or comes as a set top box, it will only require 1ghz dual core arm, perhaps less. some of the computering power needed may be built in to the televisions already. sagetv system requirements without software encoding is 256mb ram and 600mhz. - It all seems perferctly possable to me }
--------------------

[darcilicious]

Google tv failed becaues
A) no one really knew what it was
B) Most people had the computer for the internet and a tele for the television
C) it was sold through specialised retailers mainly

You forgot:

D) Google didn't bother lining up any content partners and it took less than a week after the release for every major network studio website to block access to their content from GoogleTV.

[aflat]

Originally Posted by darcilicious

You forgot:

D) Google didn't bother lining up any content partners and it took less than a week after the release for every major network studio website to block access to their content from GoogleTV.

and

e) It was really expensive at the time, for what it gave you.

[UgaData]

Warning: The following post is totally unencumbered by the thought process.


Google makes money by displaying advertising.

Neilson (spelling?) has been used to count the eye balls watching a TV program and the commercials within the TV programming. Neilson doesn't take into account if a show has been recorded (or is going to be recorded). As I understand it Neilson only counts if a program was watched live. And Neilson doesn't include watching anything over the Internet.

With the purchase of SageTV and a little tweaking, Google could track the recording (and cued for recording) of TV programs. This would be far more accurate number for advertisers to use. Granted commercial skipping software and fast-forwarding some what detracts from the number but it can still be used to determine if product placement vs traditional commercial is the best way to support a TV program. Actually both could be implemented in the same show and maybe even play off of each other.

I've typed too much, the men in black (cars, coats, glasses, etc. you pick) are here.

[brainbone]

I think this may be as close as we can currently get to understanding Google's future plans for SageTV:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srI6Q...bedded#t=2400s

[Jesse]

Originally Posted by UgaData

With the purchase of SageTV and a little tweaking, Google could track the recording (and cued for recording) of TV programs. This would be far more accurate number for advertisers to use. Granted commercial skipping software and fast-forwarding some what detracts from the number but it can still be used to determine if product placement vs traditional commercial is the best way to support a TV program. Actually both could be implemented in the same show and maybe even play off of each other.

This sounds plausible. Right up Google's alley.

Jesse

[BobbyDing]

Wow. Interesting ideas.

I was thinking Sage would just be another app available in Google TV, with plugin capabilities, modified and maintained by the Soogle staff.

Bobby

[matterofrecord]

Originally Posted by brainbone

I think this may be as close as we can currently get to understanding Google's future plans for SageTV:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srI6Q...bedded#t=2400s

thanks for the motorola tip off. I though buying motorola was all about phones. and yet they make set top boxes ( I never knew that ).

http://www.motorola.com/Video-Soluti.../DCH3416_US-EN

It kinda sounds like google has already bought it's way into the set-top box market. Sagetv may be an enhancement to what motorola can already offer or perhaps buying sagetv was just a tactical ploy to strengthen googles bargaining power with motorola. hmmm

Originally Posted by UgaData

Google makes money by displaying advertising.
-snip-

yep thats true and worth remembering. so do most tv networks. maybe your right with the ratings thing. perhaps google has done the maths and figured they can make television ads irrelevant and hopefully switch corporate advertising spending to the internet.

I think perhaps my vision of a comfy cozy everyone wins world is possibly a bit too naive. the fundamental flaw in my original idea is that google doesn't really make much money from ads directly. Google only make money IF the user goes on line and then sees an ad they like and then clicks on it. It's a lot of money to spend just for that instance. Perhaps they just want to be in the market at the start. perhaps if they can target ads based on what people view then that would make ads more relevant and therefore more profitable. but then that would probably already know what a person likes by examining their search history.

What internet enabled set top boxes could enable is the purchasing of services over the internet. Let me explain. In the UK if you have Sky tv you can pay to vote in reality tv shows, pay to bet on almost anything or pay for a content protected broadcast movie all via your set top box. Sky does it by connecting their settop box to your telephone line. I think all Sky packages for television include broadband and phone ... might be wrong there but every time I've looked tv,phone and internet together seems to be the only deal on the table. An internet enabled set top box would make if possible to "buy" some of these goods and services. but even then where does google benefit in any major way.

OR is it just that they've conquered the internet advertising and are now looking to diversify?

when google first bought sage I speculated that they could sync the adverts on television with online content. For instance your watching a show and during the ads you see something you like the look of so you click on a goto ad button and that takes you direct to a website where you can buy the item. eg you see a dominos pizza ad and think hey that'd be good so you pause tv press a button and buy a pizza over the internet. the same could be done with any product from impulse charity donations to high value goods. All they would need to know is how far through a program the viewer was to know which ad the viewer was watching. eg 17mins 20 secs to 17mins 35 seconds into Americas got talent thats dominos pizza. 35 mins 50 sec to 36 mins 20 secs into an ncis repeat thats the salvation army. You could help sales along by providing both the viewer and the company with an easy way of transferring the money. A similar thing could be done with product placement. You like the clothes the stars are wearing on a show. pause tv / select buy later or press you goto ad button and see if the product placement is available.
So product placements and adverts could be combined with click through advertising. which sounds a lot more google.

when I first suggested this I though I had gone a little bit crazy in the moment but as UgaData points out Adverts are google core business and millions more people watch television shows than watch youtube videos.

this could also help the networks as they could work with this to increase the revenue generated from advertising. They could show direct relevancy ( ie your ad showed and 8:40 pm and you got 10,000 sales 8:41 pm via google box. ) It would also provide very quick feedback for the company placing the ads ( if no one clicks through either your advert is wrong or your advertising in the wrong show).

however the networks may also be resistant to any change. This model requires the advertisers and the networks to be on board.

I also speculated when google first took over that if it really takes off google might eventually offer an "alternative ad break". Thats to say your set top box or television would download separate adverts target specifically at you ( based on your viewing searching and whatever other information google has on you ). in effect google would buy the ad break from the tv network and then show targeted ads over the top of what was being broadcast. Target ads could be more relevant as the advertising companies wouldn't have to guess whether their target audience were watching the show they were advertising in. With this model they would only show ads relevant to the viewer. So if the viewer is a single man who likes cats 4x4s and beer. then you can show him catfood, off roaders and beer ads rather than dog food, make up and baby product ads. This would take the guess work out of deciding which shows to place your ads with. also gender related, age related or interest based ads could be added or removed from a targeted advert scheme.

The network could profit from the sale of ad breaks to google rather than to individual advertisers. The networks would make the show and then let google do the adverts. If google pays enough then the networks may go with it.

you also have to consider what Ugadata said about nielsen ratings. the vast amount of information google could offer about who watched what and more importantly what adverts they liked and what adverts they didn't like. It could make neilsen look very basic indeed..


these are some of the possibilities for adverts but they would involve deals with the networks. and there lies the problem. would the networks just say we make programs the ads can be done however we like as long as we get paid. OR would they say we only make money from adverts why would we hand that over to google so they can take a slice.

hmm. I reminded of the quote
" if the product is provide for free the chances are you are the product "

still does get me any closer to knowing what sagetv will be like in a years time. A lot of my ideas aren't going to be happening any time in the next few years I recon.

How about free streaming content with relevancy based ads ( that they viewer couldn't skip past) thrown in. With everyone moving to dvrs and tivos if you can say to advertisers we can provide a platform where people will have to watch your ads. surely that would be useful. The scheme could be trialed via youtubes servers so there isn't a massive waste of cash if it falls flat. the adverts could be targeted based on what info google knows or can guess about you. You could even make it necessary for the viewer to respond to an advert to keep watching.
For instance you advertising a car and its unique selling point is say the price. you show the advert and then give the viewer a multiple choice question. ie the new honda civic complete with air con and alloy wheels cost
A) 20,000
b) 25,000
c) just 17,000

get it wrong and viewer ( that eventually will be us) has to either watch the ad again or at least answer again. This " the viewer cannot ignore the advert " streaming service could generate more advertising revenue that traditional models based on the same content and could allow content that is usually premium available for free and on demand.

It's just an idea I doesn't sound very google like to me.

hmm. still leaves me wondering if google buying sage was just about getting a presence in the market and making it up from there.

and it still leaves me with no idea when I can expect a bug fix for the achieving error I keep getting.

[matterofrecord]

Okay I have just come back from making a hot drink and I figure maybe I'm overthinking things here. sorry.

Perhaps even google don't know exactly what they will do.

Perhaps google just see internet enabled television screens coming along and figure they want to get their foot in the door before their competition does. Sagetv is the best dvr company to buy and it prevents anyone else from buying sage. Motorola have patents on phone and dvr stuff but the phone patents are surely more important than any the dvr stuff motorola have.

I guess the most irritating thing is that there are people right now who know exactly whats going on and can't tell us without loosing lots of money. and I don't blame them. I do exactly the same in their situation.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by matterofrecord

It kinda sounds like google has already bought it's way into the set-top box market. Sagetv may be an enhancement to what motorola can already offer or perhaps buying sagetv was just a tactical ploy to strengthen googles bargaining power with motorola. hmmm

I hope that Google would eventually move the Motorola STBs to Android/GoogleTV. But, if any of SageTV is used, I would guess that it wouldn't be the parts any of us are really interested in (DRM free recording, comskip, etc.).

Originally Posted by matterofrecord

perhaps google has done the maths and figured they can make television ads irrelevant and hopefully switch corporate advertising spending to the internet.

Google is trying to figure out how to make its advertising model relevant on TVs. The SageTV purchase could have just been a part of that discovery process. The first attempts at GoogleTV certainly were.

Going forward, I think Google will continue trying to figure out how to increase the value of ads for broadcast TV by using what it knows about the viewer(s) to better focus the advertising on a per viewer basis. While cable companies and networks would not want to share current ad revenue with Google, I imagine they would like a share of the increased ad revenue Google could likely bring. Add to that better viewer statistics, real time feedback, and possible in-show purchasing/interaction (as you already pointed out) -- you could have a win-win situation for networks, cable companies/ISPs, advertisers and Google.

But, to get back on topic, will SageTV tech. be a part of this? If so, I think it would be to help in the transition from the current broadcast TV model to streaming -- a potentially large transition window.

[matterofrecord]

Originally Posted by brainbone

-snip-
if any of SageTV is used, I would guess that it wouldn't be the parts any of us are really interested in (DRM free recording, comskip, etc.).
-snip-

But, to get back on topic, will SageTV tech. be a part of this? If so, I think it would be to help in the transition from the current broadcast TV model to streaming -- a potentially large transition window.

In the Uk The bbc / uk goverment and drm pressure groups etc can look the other way when a few pc based programs work round the rules but google may be too big to escape the notice of the drm pressure groups. At least thats my take from the uk.

As for the transition from broadcast to streaming I've never really thought about it. I guess once the infrastructure is in place it is very possible that's what will happen. currently in the UK between buffering, the peak time slow down, and poor image quality I've kinda given up on quality streaming for now. but in time things could be very different.


Maybe google just wants to "giveaway" a free cheap dvr so that no one will ever watch broadcast tv adverts again

sagetv is good for skipping through adverts. If Lots of people had sagetv lots of people would watch less adverts on broadcast tele. If people are watching less adverts the advertisers have to look elsewhere. either product placements (note 1) or advertising online (note 2). Online ads will benefit google.
With content providers loosing advertising revenue the quality of non paytv content will go down. product placements will not enhance quality.
With fewer quality programs available people will watch less television and probably spend more time online. which will again benefit google.

"pay tv" like cable/satellite and "pay to stream" will probably start to converge when the infrastructre is ready. Google will also benefit from this as it will own the established internet streaming box and hence can either take a slice through sales or through commission.

if this version is correct ( btw it will be sold in set top boxes to increase uptake ) then google are genuises at what they do.



-------------------------
(note 1) Product placements can be active or passive. Active product placement where the product takes a role in the script or plot can be difficult to work into program whilst keeping the program watchable. passively working product placement by having the product in the background but not part of the plot is easier but less effective.
(note 2) Yes there are other forms of advertising other than online like radio,newspapers, magazines and billboards which will all get their fair share as well but it will be nothing compared to boom in targeted online adverts
-------------------------------------
-------off topic-----------
(note 3)
The death of commercial tv in europe.
In europe advert free tv for most people involves state run or state mandated television. The bbc is an example where although they charge a "license fee" it is charged to anyone with a television - it is in effect a tax by another name. This funding arrangement depends on the government continuing to allow this "pay regardless of useage" scheme to remain ( bbc could be entirely paytv ). Similar institutions across europe who are directly or inderectly reliant on government support or funding are suscepable to government political pressure. Commercial tv does not have the same reliance on government for funding and can therefore be more independant and crucially ( if it doesn't drive advertisers away ) more critical of the government. thats where we're at in europe. heres hoping for independant online television.

[7up]

Lots of interesting ideas and speculation in this thread much of which could certainly be possible however...

I can understand Google's desire to get you on the internet while watching tv and to use their search tool and ultimately view advertising however I still believe it overlooks the major issue that the majority of people watching TV don't want an interactive experience, they want to be entertained. When I sit down to watch TV, I want to relax watch a movie, sports, tv show, news etc. The last thing I really need is a search engine. Given the popularity of GoogleTV, I would say the market has spoken on this issue as well. Sure there will always be a niche but thats not what Google is looking for.

As for plans with SageTV, I think it will appear as an App on the new box and a major feature. The only problem will be, who are they gonig to target for a market? Cable subscribers get their DVRs from cable company with some percentage opting for Tivo and miniscule percentage of others using Moxi, MCE, SageTv, etc. If Google plans on entering this marketplace, that means a cablecard slot. Hard to believe this is their goal. As for Satellite subscribers, the masses already have DVRs and integrating a third party DVR would require an agreement with DTV or Dish? Hard to believe this is their market either. That leaves OTA and InternetTV. How many people surf youtube?

I think Sagetv is the coolest DVR software available but not sure how Google can make a DVR into a financial success given the hurdles for usage with CableTv and integration with satellite. Don't forget, its probably a given that DRM will be added.

[bunch92]

Originally Posted by 7up

When I sit down to watch TV, I want to relax watch a movie, sports, tv show, news etc. The last thing I really need is a search engine.

+1

Browsing the net is so much easier using a PC, tablet or Smart phone... I think only a few people use the TV as a browser these days.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by bunch92

+1

Browsing the net is so much easier using a PC, tablet or Smart phone... I think only a few people use the TV as a browser these days.

I don't think the browser will continue to be a huge focus on GoogleTV, especially with native apps on the way. However, a fully functional browser on your TV is handy from time to time.

Originally Posted by 7up

it overlooks the major issue that the majority of people watching TV don't want an interactive experience, they want to be entertained.

Xbox, Playstation, Wii, etc., show that people are willing to interact with their TV, if presented in a usable way.

Certain TV programming, like children's, may lend itself to some level of interactivity.

[rrhorer]

Originally Posted by matterofrecord

Google only make money IF the user goes on line and then sees an ad they like and then clicks on it.

For what it's worth, this is not my understanding of how Google makes money. My daughter worked for Google; but my understanding is based on a brief discussion with a friend of hers who worked in sales. Essentially, Google sells key words for searches (monthly payments); and. if a customer pays enough, a Google salesperson will even help design the best set of key words to use. A set is selected, then tested for hits and modified as needed until the hits are sufficient (something like that). This could be totally wrong for all I really know. But, if my understanding is right and the expanded STB speculation is right, I can imagine Google offering "premium" search service at a much higher cost. The thing to note about Google's advertising, as compared to random web page advertising which makes money based on hits, is that Google's advertising is targeted to one's expressed search interests at the time.

[7up]

Originally Posted by brainbone

Xbox, Playstation, Wii, etc., show that people are willing to interact with their TV, if presented in a usable way.

Certain TV programming, like children's, may lend itself to some level of interactivity.

I don't mean to disagree but game systems may be played on the same screen but are not "TV." I do agree its interaction but its interaction for entertainment. I do agree people can use a TV for interactive activities but what niche or need is GoogleTV going to fill? Compete with xbox or PS3? Tivo? Boxee? New TV's and Blu-ray players have basic internet functionality including Netflix so there has to be some compelling reason to shell out 100+ dollars on another box.

The last thing that gamers, at least in our house, want/need is a search tool or ads.

[matterofrecord]

Originally Posted by 7up

New TV's and Blu-ray players have basic internet functionality including Netflix so there has to be some compelling reason to shell out 100+ dollars on another box.

I think the word "basic" sums up the current internet functionality ( from what I've heard). Google sage if it uses android should function like much more like the latest android smart phones of tablets which would be far ahead of what is on offer from at the moment.

However that still doesn't get around the fact that
A) Less than half of these internet capable device are ever connected to the internet
B) how does google benfit from this.

I could suggest that IF android is better than the other options AND built in to these television sets and blu-ray players etc more people will connect these things onto the internet. Internet functionality usually benefits google ( using the well known sum;
internet + user = google makes money )

so launching it's own internet enabled platform could be a way of showing to manufacturers what it can do. However they did that with googletv 1 and take up has been virtually nill. adding dvr( via sage obviously) and generally improving android might make a difference.

However you should not underestimate the desire for manufacturers to both brand their goods and differentiate their brand. (EG If a sony android tv looks very similar to an oem chinese android tv then sony has lost some of it's brand power.)

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by 7up

The last thing that gamers, at least in our house, want/need is a search tool or ads.

It has less to do with what you want, and more to do with what you are willing to allow balanced with the relative value of the offering.

Just as our phones have migrated far from just a "Phone" to a "smart phone", I expect a unified interface, like GoogleTV, will do the same for the "TV". Streaming services in game consoles already have blurred the lines. What is "TV"? Just watching movies/shows? Is it only a "TV" while we're watching a show? Does it have to be live? Do DVRed shows count? Would a pop-up at an end of a show asking you to rate it suddenly make it "Not TV"? If not "TV", what should we call it? "Smart TV"? Living room/kitchen/bedroom monitor? Intelligence suppression machine?

Google, being able to collect information on you based on the shows you watch, when you watch them, the games you play, etc., will be invaluable in developing rating statistics and targeting advertising for the other services you use, be it on the "TV", your "Phone" or elsewhere.

[rrhorer]

I probably didn't develop my point very well. For pure speculation purposes, I believe Google is aiming for targeted advertising. Think about it. After making a purchase or searching for the price of an item on Amazon, you are presented with a slate of other items you might like; and, on future visits to Amazon's web site, you are given a reminder of what Amazon thinks your purchase/search preferences are. Even Sage has a built-in intelligent recording option based on what it thinks your recording preferennces are (although I have never used it).

Currently, TV commercials that play to a national audience, for say a thirty second prime time slot, pay a huge amount and probably miss 90+% of their intended audience. Add the knowledge of our TV habits (whether we watch the travel channel, kids' programming, sports, chick flicks, martial arts, etc.) to Google's knowledge of our internet preferences, and Google can offer advertisers the opportunity to reach more of their intended audience with much less use of the available advertising space. In turn, the freed-up advertising space will accommodate more advertisers, resulting in more advertising $$ from both the existing advertising pool and from new advertisers. Content will follow the advertising $$. Streaming could easily follow the free Hulu business model except, again, in a more targeted manner.

For all of this to work, Google needs to offer a very appealing appliance with multi-room DVR capabilities and DRM that maintains commercial viewing in a way that is acceptable to the masses. I might actually not mind intelligent commercials that understand my preferences rather than something that would have appealed to my daughter years ago when she was an MTV devotee (I do skip commercials with Sage except when watching live TV).