How will SageTV survive?

[Insyte]

Is there a profitable market for a niche product like SageTV to survive? Most cable companies are providing PVR service for as little as $6 per month. Tivo, the 600 lb gorilla in the PVR field, is clearly feeling the pain.

Don't get me wrong: I'm very impressed with SageTV and will be making a purchase soon. I'm just nervous that, as the PVR field becomes more commoditized, SageTV might not be around to continue improving/supporting their fine product. Especially without ad revenue and recurring fees...

SageTV folks: Any insight? You clearly think you're going to survive. How do you plan to pull it off?

Curiously,
Ben

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by Insyte

Is there a profitable market for a niche product like SageTV to survive?

Short answer, yes.

Most cable companies are providing PVR service for as little as $6 per month.

But most/many Cable DVRs are not very good, especially compared to Sage. But also the appeal to a rather different market.

Tivo, the 600 lb gorilla in the PVR field, is clearly feeling the pain.

Tivo's biggest problem, is it appeals to the same market as the provider DVRs. SageTV, while there's definitely overlap appeals to a group that is, in general, more demanding and more involved.

Especially without ad revenue and recurring fees...

Well there's the user base that keeps buying more products, plus licensing revenue to companies like VWB, and, I get the feeling, a companies/partners we know nothing about.

SageTV folks: Any insight? You clearly think you're going to survive. How do you plan to pull it off?

Here's how I see it. Basic functionality is similar, they record TV, for the cable DVR user that's enough and Sage doesn't hold much appeal. But there's a another whole (but definitely smaller) group that wants more than that. They want a centralized media management/distribution solution. They want whole-house DVR, whole-house movie distribution, customized, changeable UI, etc. These are the people that will sustain Sage, and I don't think they'er going anywhere, becauses there's really nothing out there that can match SageTV point for point.

[walts81]

Plus, there's those of us that are hooked and will always buy the next upgrade release.

- Josh

[Insyte]

But most/many Cable DVRs are not very good, especially compared to Sage. But also the appeal to a rather different market.

No argument there. The problem is that they're commoditizing the market. My brother is a technically savvy type, but for him a $4/month PVR was just too good to pass up, even with its limitations. There has to be a lot of people like him.

But there's a another whole (but definitely smaller) group that wants more than that.

Absolutely. I guess I'm wondering if we're a profitable enough demographic to keep the Sage developers in espresso and chocolate. Unless SageTV is somehow keeping their costs *extremely* low...

Please don't misunderstand: I'm not attacking Sage. I think their product is outstanding, which is why I'll be buildign a custom SageTV box shortly. I'm just curious what they're doing differently to remain (or become?) profitable.

-Ben

[stevech]

anyone know what the quantities of active licensees for SageTV and SnapStream are? I suppose there are a large number of inactive licenses.

[joe123]

Originally Posted by walts81

Plus, there's those of us that are hooked and will always buy the next upgrade release.

Hope not. One of the reasons I went SageTV route was the (for now) no fees for upgrades.

One of the reasons I gave up TiVo was the due to their subscription fees.

[Hector]

Originally Posted by stanger89

Here's how I see it. Basic functionality is similar, they record TV, for the cable DVR user that's enough and Sage doesn't hold much appeal. But there's a another whole (but definitely smaller) group that wants more than that. They want a centralized media management/distribution solution. They want whole-house DVR, whole-house movie distribution, customized, changeable UI, etc. These are the people that will sustain Sage, and I don't think they'er going anywhere, becauses there's really nothing out there that can match SageTV point for point.

I think this is exactly right. Sage (or something like it) will always appeal to the technically aware enthusiast. We're the geek version of the folks who work on their engines all weekend to add 5 hp or the next generation of the folks who built/soldered add ons to their CB/Ham radios. In just about every area of consumer interest there are those who push the envelope and demand more than the average consumer in that space. There have always been companies that succeed in these 'high end' spaces (they still make Thrush mufflers!) and in that light and considering the size of the market of tv watchers there would always a market for products like Sage.

For my part the only time I use my HD Tivo is to record non-OTA HD D* content and its literally painful. But therein lies the rub as I see it. The challenge is not 'will there be people interested in buying Sage for its features' but rather 'will there be people interested in buying Sage for the content it is ALLOWED to record?'. As the world moves towards apparent digital lockdown will it be enough? I HATE having to use Tivo to record D* HD but there isn't any other way. I have to use D* approved equipment. Same with Dish and same with the cable co's (when it comes to their HD non-OTA content).

Things like cablecard type technology offer clear potential solutions but the cableco's et al haven't shown a lot of enthusiasm for it and why should they? Better to rent a PVR for $5-$10 ($15 here!) per month AND keep the content locked down. It's possible there could be enough enthusiast demand for this sort of technology to be offered by cableco's but I rather doubt it considering the forces working against it.

This isn't a problem today, or maybe not even tomorrow but a few years down the road when a large % of non-OTA content is locked down how attractive is it going to be to buy an expensive HTPC to record just a few OTA channels? For some of us sure, but the potential market diminishes significantly I think.

So as I see it this isn't so much a technical challenge as it is a business one. Is it going to be possible to make deals with cableco's, Dish and D* that allow customers to record their content? For Tivo (ie Comcast) maybe, for Sage probably not. If I were doing long term business development for Sage I think I'd be looking hard at making a deal to get my kick ass UI on some content providers box.

Five+ years down the road looks ugly to me. I see us all using crappy boxes provided by our content provider moaning about how much better it used to be 'back in the day' while a few of us belligerently maintain our OTA only boxes. It's depressing really.

Does anyone see this differently? There is nothing I'd rather be more wrong about.

[ChePazzo]

Here's my thing. I have been looking for this sort of thing for over 10 years. Finally 2 years ago, I bought a Prismiq and installed the server on my PC so I could stream video to my TV. It was great. No HD or noisy moving parts in my living room. One central server and any TV can access the same copy of the same content. I just couldn't record TV.

So last year, I got a PVR-250 and SageTV. This was great! I could record TV and stream strip out commercials and stream to my TV and burn to DVD. And I could still rip my DVDs to my PC and put them away so they don't get scratched and I have a great little VOD setup. I just couldn't control SageTV from the TV.

So this year, I got the MediaMVP with the SageClient.

I now have the holy grail of personal PVR/VOD network. What's next. Well, SageTV allows multiple tuners on a network. My goal is to have a PVR/VOD server farm. Multiple HDDs (either NAS or on PC servers) with multiple tuners on a network. Then put an MVP on each TV in the house. It is IMHO the ultimate setup. I can do with DVDs what we've all already done with our CDs - create a real library.

No PC or Drive in the living room; they are all tucked away in the basement.

The day DVDs came out, I was so done with VHS. That day, VHS became such a burden and pain that I didn't even want to look at one ever again. I am close to feeling that way about DVDs. I am so done and ready for streaming everything.

The only thing I don't have is High Def. I'm not sure how that's going to work. Sending a 20Mbps stream accross a network to my TV doesn't seem feasable (not to mention the space requirements). And I don't know if there are any other Hardware decoders in media players out there for other smaller HD formats. I'm sure it will come, but where will SageTV fit into all of this? Are they in bed with any hardware media extender that does High Def?

So... to answer the original question: YES. As long as Sage continues to work with the media extenders (not the MCE PCs with harddrives that you put next to your TV) and can get into that high def market, I think they will do fine!

Too bad Prismiq seems to have abandonded thier player . . . .

[ruel]

Originally Posted by Insyte

I'm just curious what they're doing differently to remain (or become?) profitable.

-Ben

I wouldn't worry about it too much because you're talking apples and oranges here regarding the users where for standalone cable DVRs you're dealing with primarily non-techie TV watchers who want a recorder box that is simple to use (and that they don't have to build and that the subscriber doesn't have to pay too much for because the DVR box is financed by the cable company resulting in a relatively small rental payment per month for the subscriber box) and for SageTV you're dealing with PC users who want to build the box that the user finances the box himself upfront and that the user can constantly tweak, expand, and upgrade the box without any interference from the cable provider. You also have to keep in mind that SageTV is primarily software (plus the service of providing the EPG capability) that is being sold to individual users while the cable companies also have to finance the box for a DVR for their cable subscribers. SageTV may also sell TV Tuner cards, remotes, etc. on the side to bring in more revenue, but SageTV is not financing whole DVR boxes like the cable companies. For SageTV, the building and the financing of the box is left to the user while SageTV primarily is the supplier of the software to the user. In contrast, the cable companies have a much larger overhead where they have to deal with and finance everything including the software, the box, the connection, etc. on a mass basis and then recoup all of that money through monthly subscriptions, monthly rentals of the boxes, etc. I doubt this would happen anytime soon, but if things slow down for SageTV then don't be surprised if they start charging EPG subscription fees (they could follow the DigiGuide MyTVinfo subscription model of charging $30-$50 a year) but they should be covered there with however they are doing things by selling software and TV cards. Anyways, as a user I figure if SageTV were to go under, which again I doubt would happen, then so long as I have the software working and so long as I can hook up to a cable line or to an antenna, then I can always try XMLTV for getting the EPG data. Also, you have to keep in mind the sales for HDTV displays as well as the digital switchover on the over-the-air terrestrial tv side which is supposed to happen in February 2009 where that is all accompanied by people looking to how they can continue to get their TV signals including whether to go with a PC-based solution, as well as cable-provided and satellite-provided options, to get digital over-the-air TV, or switching to cable or to satellite, after terrestrial over-the-air analog tv goes dark. These are upcoming opportunities for potential new users looking at SageTV as an niche option. These switchover activities and events create a momentum for people to look at options and alternatives where a company like SageTV could piggyback on those changes to get at least some of those new customers who may want a PC-based solution for TV in the home.

[joe123]

Originally Posted by ChePazzo

So... to answer the original question: YES. As long as Sage continues to work with the media extenders (not the MCE PCs with harddrives that you put next to your TV) and can get into that high def market, I think they will do fine!.

My thoughts exactly!

The main power of SageTV is the whole-house PVR ability. I have 4 TV's and find SageTV a very good way to give each TV a TiVo like ability with the Sage Media Extenders (MVP) at low costs.

Having said that, I sure hope that the MVP Darkness problem is resolved soon. The MVP's are the biggest selling point for SageTV in my opinion. At $99.00 bucks a TV for the hardware (MVP) and Sage license, it's a winner.

[lovingHDTV]

I personally think that the extenders and their quality will determine which software solution wins. This is not a statement about cable dvr's because those users don't get this option. But I think it is a main motivator for SageTV, etc users.

I'm also glad to hear that Sage is making progress in this direction, not fast enough for me, but progress

I want a hddless 1080p[i], hdmi, digital audio extender, that coupled with the mvp will be perfect for both an HDTV and SDTV solution.

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by Hector

I have to use D* approved equipment. Same with Dish and same with the cable co's (when it comes to their HD non-OTA content).

There's always 169time

For Tivo (ie Comcast) maybe, for Sage probably not.

Did you miss the announcement that VWB's MediaReady 6000 (powered by SageTV) was certified for bi-directional CableCard? I believe it's second only to the CableCard Tivo.

Originally Posted by ChePazzo

No PC or Drive in the living room; they are all tucked away in the basement.

FWIW, my HTPC (in my HT) is probably quieter than a Tivo

[joe123]

Originally Posted by lovingHDTV

I want a hddless 1080p[i], hdmi, digital audio extender, that coupled with the mvp will be perfect for both an HDTV and SDTV solution.

Don't forget to ask that the now known Darkness problem with MVP's is fixed in their new DHTV extenders.

[Polypro]

I thank the stars that I bought a VAIO with MCE 2004 on it...it exposed me to the term "HTPC"...and was so unreliable, I had to find a replacement. I don't know how I found Sage, but I'm glad I did. I tried GAM, Meedio, and BTV...none worked right out of the box...Sage did. I still have DirecTiVo downstairs...for the family, I never watch it anymore. I'll never look back. I love being able to do things with my media that no consumer device can come close to...at least not without spending $ at every turn. I do my part by talking about Sage's capabilities to friends...I've got one convert installing it this week

P

[jlindborg]

The other thing to consider here is the big providers will start limiting their content (i.e. how long you can keep a recording around before you watch it) - you've seen them throwing up Hail Mary's like trying to plug the "Analog hole" and forcing all DRVs and capture cards and such to enforce their unrealistic dreams of making you pay for every time you watch one of their shows. Not likely going to be very enforcable but I can easily see the DVRs you get from your cable company and satalite provider doing just that since it's in their best interest.

Having a class of programs that cannot be recorded at all or that will "live" on your system only for a limited number of days will quickly genrate interest in more independant solutions like Sage which can distance themselves somewhat more from the strict enforcement of such draconian rules. This is the primary reason I dumped TIVO early - I can see this one coming from around the bend - it's only a matter of time.

[stevech]

for the paranoid amongst us - consider what happens if Zap2it's owners (or worse, new owners) decide to cut us off.

[aperry]

Keep in mind that SageTV pays Tribune (Zap2It provider) a fee. I don't know the specifics, but I don't see that going away. In all reality, it is nothing different than the newspapers paying for listings so they can print them in your paper.

[ChePazzo]

So, how are you able to use SageTV with either digital cable or any station that requires the cable settopbox?

[aperry]

Originally Posted by ChePazzo

So, how are you able to use SageTV with either digital cable or any station that requires the cable settopbox?

Basically, most people use something like the USB-UIRT which both receives and transmits infrared signals.

So, you run an S-Video connection and audio cables from your cable box to your TV tuner card, set up SageTV to make use of that input, and configure it to send out the appropriate codes to your cable box.

Another option that some are using for high definition (though on my system it also works for the digital channels) is to use a firewire connection. Going that route, and assuming that you have a Motorola cable box, you can configure SageTV to send out channel changes over the firewire.

I don't have all the specifics, but you might just take a look through the other threads in these forums to see what is available.

[joe123]

Originally Posted by stevech

for the paranoid amongst us - consider what happens if Zap2it's owners (or worse, new owners) decide to cut us off.

They will never "cut" us off, they will make it into a pay subscription service for only $12.95 a month

I hope this never happens since it is one of the reasons I gave up TiVo - the no subscription fee.

Hopefully, the EPG data will be free enough where it will always be available in one format or another. SageTV could win over more customers by having a way for users to specify how they get their EPG data in the SageTV software. This feature would be extremly valuable in my opinion.