How will SageTV survive?

[stanger89]

SageTV already supports EPG plugins. Has since the beginning.

[joe123]

Originally Posted by stanger89

SageTV already supports EPG plugins. Has since the beginning.

Ah ok, thanks.

[ben_95sl1]

i agree with concerns...I'm in Canada. I want HDTV pvr. I can only get it with a cable or satellite box (and with $500 firewire mod on a overpriced old ebay sat receiver), no OTA, and probably 5-10yrs before I see one or two channels OTA HDTV. What do I do? I'm screwed. If sat and cable only let microsoft vista in, what's the future for sagetv and competitors? how the heck am I going to get HDTV into my HTPC in the near future?

[jominor]

Originally Posted by Insyte

Is there a profitable market for a niche product like SageTV to survive? Most cable companies are providing PVR service for as little as $6 per month. Tivo, the 600 lb gorilla in the PVR field, is clearly feeling the pain.

Don't get me wrong: I'm very impressed with SageTV and will be making a purchase soon. I'm just nervous that, as the PVR field becomes more commoditized, SageTV might not be around to continue improving/supporting their fine product. Especially without ad revenue and recurring fees...

SageTV folks: Any insight? You clearly think you're going to survive. How do you plan to pull it off?

Curiously,
Ben

As long as there are people who want to expand their systems beyond the set top box, absolutely. Dell makes PCs, but you still buy parts to make your own. I have 4 drives(3x200,1x160) Sage TV drives, and 4(4x200) Divx movie drives.

What set top box can I buy? Not one.

[mayamaniac]

SageTV doesn't have to worry about marketing the PVR experience, they'll just let Microsoft do that. And once you learn about MCE, you'll sooner or later learn about its competitor (SageTV, BTV, Meedio, etc). And base on what MS has done so far, they are investing big time in MCE and believe that sooner or later, the computer and the TV will become one or the PC will invade the living room as the ultimate Media Center that everybody want and need. And they are probably right, its inevitable in the digital age.

SageTV is still too hard to use. Its the equivalent of buying PC parts and putting it together yourself, rathering than just buying a pre-configure Dell. So SageTV is still for computer hobbyists. I bet that every SageTV user knows how to build their own PC from parts. And thats the way its gonna be until many things get standardized and you can just buy any components and just hook it up and they just work. We are a long way from that considering the mess it is now, from hardware to software to contents, too many problems.

[Mahoney]

The major issue I would guess for SageTV will be Video over IP. Already in the UK the BBC and Sky have produced desktop apps to let you get their content over the net. Phase 2 for both will be to create a Windows Media Center version of the app. My guess is you will never see a SageTV version of either app; the takeup just isn't there to warrant it. Nor will it be permissible for a third party to create one (not for release, anyway). Conceptually, Microsoft are kind of right - Media Center is going to become an operating system, with applications written by third parties designed to run within it. And Microsoft are past masters at winning operating system wars by persuading the people with content we want only to write their applications for their operating system.

The other issue will be how they are affected as DRM becomes more ubiquitous in broadcast media, both digital and analogue; but I'm more confident that one way or another they will be able to ride that one, as the development of software to handle it will be in their hands.

[Lucas]

SageTV is more than just a PVR.

It depends on how strong the market demand is for the total and integrated solution SageTV can offer.

For me a simple PVR/DVR is not enough since I aim to have all media (Recorded TV, Videos, DVDs, pictures and music) stored in an easily accessible area like a server and distribute it across my house with a unified interface.

I believe that demand(from the middle segment of the market) for this is increasing.

People that can spend $30k and $40k on something like this in their home (high end of the market) but don't have the time nor experience to do it themselves can opt for the highend solutions from Crestron and AMX.

SageTV is ideal for achieving the same thing (as far as media distribution goes) for much less.

I believe the challenge for SageTV at the moment is the migration from analogue to digital and High Definition.

Capturing Standard Definition analogue from analogue TV Tuners and external cable/sat digital STBs is addressed extremely well.
Free to Air HDTV and DVB-T is there as well.
Also, storing and playing HDTV format video files is also good.

However, the remaining challenges are:
1. integrating the content from Subscription channels that are only available through proprietary external STBs
2. Support DVB-S and DVB-S2 SD and HD sat channels.
3. Storing and Playing content from purchased next generation High Definition Discs (Blue Ray, HD-DVD, etc).

Overall, in my eyes SageTV is currently well positioned to provide a solution that addresses a significant market segment. .

[aperry]

You know, as I think about it, SageTV is a bit limiting of a name, since it actually does so much more than just TV. Perhaps, to borrow from one of the STV's, SageMC (for Sage Media Center) would be more descriptive.

Anyhow, if SageTV could just get the "media" portion working better, like fixing some of the navigation quirks, handling LARGE numbers of media files well, and the other things folks have brought up, it could really be totally your one-stop product. As it is, there are products that do the non-TV functions better than SageTV currently does (which is why you have things like MeedioSage which folks use to have Sage handling the TV/PVR stuff which it arguably does really really well, and Meedio doing the other stuff which it arguably does better than Sage in many areas).

[stevech]

So one might say that to differentiate itself, SageMC would have to do each of these things well, rather than the too-often scenario where some functions are weak and this offsets the all-in-one appeal.

[aperry]

My thoughts exactly. As I mentioned Sage does TV/PVR really well and the other stuff pretty good. Meedio does the other stuff really well and TV/PVR pretty good. And I think similar statements could be made about the other products as well.

[dbfresh23]

Originally Posted by Hector

Things like cablecard type technology offer clear potential solutions but the cableco's et al haven't shown a lot of enthusiasm for it and why should they? Better to rent a PVR for $5-$10 ($15 here!) per month AND keep the content locked down. It's possible there could be enough enthusiast demand for this sort of technology to be offered by cableco's but I rather doubt it considering the forces working against it.

Actually I believe you are completely wrong. From what I understand cable companies love the idea of cable card. They hate having to buy cable boxes to rent them out as it costs them a whole lot more money then it will cost them to rent out a cablecard. Don't mistake that $5-15 /mo rental fee as pure profit, cable boxes aren't exactly free. Also, it's not the cable companies that care about keeping content locked down, it's the studios - though in the case of companies like Time Warner and DirecTV they pretty much amount to the same thing...

Interestingly enough as the cable companies are trying to get away from renting cable boxes, DirecTV has just announced that they will be going to a rental system in another month. So DirecTV customers will no longer be able to buy their own recievers.

As I see it, the make or break it thing for apps like SageTV will be the ability to use cablecard and whatever system DirecTV comes out with for MCE. Hopefully people wont need to buy an MR6000 to get cablecard, not that it matters to me since I have no plans of leaving DirecTV since they are releasing something to get the tv directly into the PC. I'd be more likely to switch to Vista if that system doesn't work with SageTV. I'm crossing my fingers! Obviously the second make/break deal is HD extenders. MS may have won the race with the Xbox 360, but a game system is far from the perfect extender as it doesn't really fit in with other electronics as I'd want it to. Hopefully SageTV will start giving us some hints about the HD extender they are working on!

[Jere_Jones]

dbfresh,

Do you have any links to support your DirecTV statements?

Jere

[dbfresh23]

About the renting receivers?

http://www.multichannel.com/article/...=Breaking+News

http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6301293.html

Also can just do a google news search for directv lease

[stevech]

IMO, having a great slide-show of digital photos is important for a "SageMC". This is the 21st century version of our 35mm slide shows.

We do this a lot here - as our family members email a lot of photos of family happenings, new kids activities around the country, etc.

I have a slide show viewer for my TV. It uses the TV remote. It presents menus by file directory names, e.g., a folder named Joe and Mary and one level of sub- folders therein - for batches of photos that came in a single email. Most importantly, the software hides folders of photos that have previously viewed. Unless you ask for "all" rather than "New".

And maintenance is simple: just put photos in a folder using Windows' standard stuff. No slide-show composition work session needed (family doesn't want to have to fool with that - just save the incoming emailed photos to a folder and forget it).

No music. Automatically sequence through photos, go-back and pause with buttons on the remote, etc. Automatically resizes to fit screen. Automatically rotates if needed - using the EXIF data embedded in the JPEG headers from the camera. ALso photo's date/time from EXIF, not file creation date.

I tried all the slide show software on the market. None did the features I described. So I wrote my own VB6 program. I'd like this functionality to be combined in "SageMC".

[dagar]

Wow, if I have to start renting receivers from D* that may be a good time to punch out. That's why I dropped Cox in the 1st place. Cripes!

[dbfresh23]

Well they are already charging you $5/mo for equipment that they aren't even renting you - you had to buy it. I doubt the actual price will change, I'd think that this is just a new method of attracting new customers.

They are obviously not going to give 15 Mil new customers now boxes just to switch to a renting system - this will likely only impact new recievers. My concern would be them not being willing to add an "old" reciever to my package. It also gives new customers less incentive to get locked into a contract with those "free" reciever deals.

I don't really care so long as I can plug a PCI DTV Tuner card into my pc later this year!

[ben_95sl1]

I would much rather own my receiver, but there are disadvantages: such as when they upgrade to mpeg4 or something else changes in the future...but by then, you will already be saving money if you bought it over a rental.

Sat companies have the piracy issue, and only providing rentals is probably going to help. But they also make more money on rentals I'm sure. It's also an easier sell to new customers.

[Crazedz]

Well im not so concerned about Sage Surviving as im sure they will it's a great solution as others have said for HTPC users and the rest who don't want to be locked down with content that can't be or can't easily be migrated from the pvr box. Example my brother's series 1 tivo in order for him to get his shows he wants off the box to his pc and output it to his ipod video he has had to mod the heck out of his tivo and install software on his pc to allow him to get the shows off the box and convert them from the propriatary mpeg2 format to standard mpeg2 and more software to encode the shows from mpeg2 to mpeg4 i belive he said all so he can get them onto his video ipod. But sage does mpeg4 so it wouldn't be an issue if he did it that way but he loves his Tivo so he puts up with it.


My big downer is my pvr 250 died all of a sudden it only shows garbled channels on whatever pc i put it in or software i use to view it on .
So now i gotta get a new replacement tuner and i have been wondering would it be even worth it to get a pvr500 considering the likely future of analog or just buy HDTV tuners from now on? What about cablecard? Would current HD tuners from Divico, Avermedia ATI or others be supported? Is their a HD card that will? What are all the HD cards that work with both HDTV OTA Qam and analog and will any of them be supported by cablecard? Does sage support cablecard? Will it support cablecard? Which HDtuners support multiple HD tuners?
Sorry maybe a little off topic however given the likely future maybe not so much so.

I'll admit i have no real knowledge about cablecard and i probably should.

[joe123]

I don't think the issue or fear is that SageTV will survive or not in my opinion.

If SageTV becomes a great success, it will simply be bought out by someone like MicroShaft.

If MS flashes big money in front of SageTV's eyes in a buyout you will see a stampeed like you never seen before.

This is business as usual unfortunately

[mikesm]

Originally Posted by dbfresh23

Actually I believe you are completely wrong. From what I understand cable companies love the idea of cable card. They hate having to buy cable boxes to rent them out as it costs them a whole lot more money then it will cost them to rent out a cablecard. Don't mistake that $5-15 /mo rental fee as pure profit, cable boxes aren't exactly free. Also, it's not the cable companies that care about keeping content locked down, it's the studios - though in the case of companies like Time Warner and DirecTV they pretty much amount to the same thing...

Interestingly enough as the cable companies are trying to get away from renting cable boxes, DirecTV has just announced that they will be going to a rental system in another month. So DirecTV customers will no longer be able to buy their own recievers.

As I see it, the make or break it thing for apps like SageTV will be the ability to use cablecard and whatever system DirecTV comes out with for MCE. Hopefully people wont need to buy an MR6000 to get cablecard, not that it matters to me since I have no plans of leaving DirecTV since they are releasing something to get the tv directly into the PC. I'd be more likely to switch to Vista if that system doesn't work with SageTV. I'm crossing my fingers! Obviously the second make/break deal is HD extenders. MS may have won the race with the Xbox 360, but a game system is far from the perfect extender as it doesn't really fit in with other electronics as I'd want it to. Hopefully SageTV will start giving us some hints about the HD extender they are working on!

The cable companies hate cablecard, not love it. There has been talk lately of completely killing the existing cablecard approach and going with a new scheme.

The cable companies hate cablecard for a number of reasons:

1) It was forced on them by congress - The Bliley amendment was driven by circuit city to enable them to be able to sell STB's directly.

2) The lose control of the program guide. They can't use the program guide and UI to promote other products

3) Current cablecards can't do VOD and PPV, two big moneymakers for the MSO's

4) New products can be built that merge cable contant and internet delievred content seemlessly. This is a big deal for them because as long as they have an STB, they are a gatekeeper for content going to the TV. The moment they just feed content into another device, their pipe becomes a commodity. Want PPV? Get it from cable or some internet provider like Movielink that cuts down completely out of the revenue stream.

5) Many operators have actually stopped charging recurring fees for cablecards. In my area, comcast charges you $16 for the card, and no extra monthly fee. Even $5/month adds a healthy amount to their ebitda.

Believe me, they don't want to see cablecard thrive. And they will resist certifying solutions for Vista that make using it commonplace.

That said, Sage can do things that the cable guys can never do - DVD jukebox, music jukebox, multi-zone A/V distribution, integration of internet content streams, home automation integration. The more interconnected you are with a user's content library they more you will differentiate yourself from a cable STB.

My HTPC is much more about media access to music and digital video than PVR. My wife like the replay tv's better than Sage/MediaPortal, even though it's SD (and we have a DCT 6412 for HD PVR). Hence my plea for better media center capabilities.

Limiting yourself to a PVR focus is a good way of enabling the cable and DBS guys to clean your clock. They control access to digital content and a 3rd party solution will never have the same level of access that their STB solutions do. But if you change the playing field to include all forms of digital media, then the cable and DBS guys can't touch you. This is the way Sage can win and thrive even as STB PVR usage soars. You don't want to compete against an incumbent on a playing field he controls.

Thanks,
Mike